Weakening Oil Price – Hang Seng Gains
Although lonely landing sentiment in the country, as well as turn around the decline in world oil prices in a week, seemed not block the rate of positive Hong Kong shares in the third week in October last, where the Hang Seng Index managed to continue rallies for three straight weeks, supported by positive sentiment region Asia ie China.
Intervention of government of China will plan to cut the price of natural gas non-housing up to 30% in some provinces by the end of the month of October as well as growing decline in world oil prices to reach the level of the lowest prices on the price range of $ 45.39 / barrel from its highs earlier in the position $ 50.89 / barrel seemed to be the biggest negative sentiment in a week.
However, the positive results of the data release Balance of Trade of China in September, which showed an increase in the trade surplus, which is due to the improved export performance in the country although still in negative trends, as well as improvement in the rate of inflation in the country and the level of credit growth in the country in September last appears to work cemented the movement of the third week, the Hang Seng index in October.
Throughout the third week of October, spot index Hang Seng managed to obtain strengthened by 608.57 points, or 2.64%, to 23067.37 points into the closing position at the end of the second week before the position 22458.80 points and managed to record the highest shares in a week surge in the position 23178.14 points and the sharp decline in the position of 22356.56 points.
Similarly, the movement of the Hang Seng Index futures for the third week ago, which successfully strengthened by 691 points, or 3%, to be 23 101 points from the closing position at the end of trading the stock exchange prior week at position 22 410 points and was able to record spike highest stock in a week at position 23 131 points and the biggest drop in position 22 316 points.
Shares amplifier Hong Kong shares during the third week is the stock Petrochina, stocks Kunlun Energy, shares of Hang Seng Bank, shares of Bank of China, shares of China Life Insurance, shares of Ping An Insurance, CNOOC, HSBC Holdings, shares of Bank East of Asia , shares of Bank Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.
Continue in the fourth week of October, investors seem to be looking forward to the results of the data release the unemployment rate, the inflation rate as well as the condition of business convenience or Business Confidence in the country, as well as industrial production data, retail sales, GDP data Q3, Data Fixed Asset Investment, the data CB Leading Economic Index, as well as data House Price Index China.
Technically, the index on the trading session today, Monday (19/10) likely to strengthen, test positive trend. At the M15 chart bullish hammer formation to provide opportunities for the index to move upside. However, the volume tends to increase, as well as an early indication of bullish index. In addition, RSI, the M15 chart, was oversold, signaling upside.
It is estimated, the index test the first resistance level of 23150 and 23250. If it fails at 23 097, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the support level of 23050 and continued up to the possibility of being in the 23000 area.
Euro QE Fatigue Fail
Euro US Dollar weighed succumbing to the divergence of monetary policy and the inflation rate. The dollar dominated trading major currencies after inflation data were better than expectations keep expectations the Federal Reserve will still raise interest rates before the central banks of other major currencies, though probably not in the near future.
On the contrary, the statistics bureau confirmed the decline in consumer prices in the euro area for a period of months ago. Deflation is the first time since the European Central Bank (ECB) embarked on a strategy of quantitative easing (quantitative easing / QE). These conditions contrast with the increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that excludes the United States food and energy components with the highest rate in three months for the same period.
The euro has been stopping five-session rally yesterday when one high-ranking ECB, Ewald Nowotny, warms additional stimulus speculation. According to Nowotny conditions in the euro area “clear” in need of an additional instrument to trigger the growth of prices.
Technically, the trading session today, Monday (19/10), the pair Euro-dollar likely to move in a negative trend.
The weakening of the Euro mainly expected soon reexamine the minimum support at 1.1300 and maximum 1.1250. Meanwhile, if the Euro is able to break and hold above 1.1353, then another alternative scenario the Euro a chance to test the resistance at 1.1380 and 1.1430 area.
Gold Futures Decline
Gold prices fell for the first time in six sessions Friday, the greenback hit an unobstructed advance in foreign currency holders of investments in dollar-denominated metal.
Gold for December delivery GCZ5, -0.91% lost $ 10.60, or 0.9%, to $ 1,176.90 per ounce, erasing gains for the year and dropped from a four-month closing high hit on Thursday.
After the recent slide in the dollar on the back of expectations the US Federal Reserve will postpone the first rate hike in nearly a decade, until 2016.
However, on Friday the US currency found some new strength as investors assess the impact of the latest inflation readings – during Thursday’s session – which showed core inflation edged closer to the Fed target of 2%.
“Gold rose for a time yesterday to a four-month high of $ 1,192 per troy ounce, but proved unable to maintain this level. This is because the US dollar is driven by the inflation rate of US higher than expected for September, which in turn weighed on gold,” Analysts at Commerzbank said in a note.
Metals traded in dollars tends to fall on a jump in the US currency, as they get more expensive to buy for holders of other currencies.
ICE dollar index DXY + 0.16% rose 0.3% to 94.612 in early trade on Friday, with the greenback rose against all other major currencies.
In other metals, silver for December SIZ5, -1.05% slipped 17 cents, or 1.1%, to $ 15.99 per ounce, while copper for the same month HGZ5, -0.70% fell 2 cents, or 0.8%, to $ 2.40 per pound.
January platinum PLF6, -0.78% shaved off $ 7.40, or 0.7%, to $ 999.60 an ounce and palladium PAZ5 December, -0.60% fell $ 3.15, or 0.5%, to $ 701.85 per ounce.
Technically, gold in today’s trading session on Monday (19/10) potentially bearish, tested negative trend back, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band begins to widen, thus giving impetus for gold to the upside.
It is estimated that the gold price immediately prior to test support in the area of at least 1170.33 and re-test the maximum level of 1164.73. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1174.60, the estimated price of gold has the potential to test the resistance at 1177.40 and 1182.72.
