Dollars Gains Ahead of FOMC Statement
Maintain a moderate strengthening of the dollar overnight in early trading Wednesday amid traders looking for any clues from the Federal Reserve for the time and the pace of interest rate hikes in the future.
The Fed will give a statement on interest rates at 1:00 pm on Thursday.
The dollar index rose to around 96.65, rebounding from a two-week low at 96.28 reached on Monday. Euro fell back from Monday’s highs at $ 1.1129 to $ 1.1075 to the level.
The dollar maintains gains at 123.50 yen, was at the top level throughout the week at 123.01 yen.
One analyst at JPMorgan Chase Bank said that we expect the Fed will refrain from clear indication when Fed rate hike. We still expect the increase in September.
The analyst also said that the dollar / yen will likely not move too much if the Fed does not avoid giving a clear indication of rising interest rates, because so far this year does not give the Fed policy statement correcting greatly to the movement of the dollar / yen.
Fear of waning interest rate lower than the Fed has weighed on commodities and emerging market assets have benefited from the Fed’s quantitative easing.
Technically, the pair Euro-dollar likely to move in negative trend on the trading session today, Wednesday (29/07).
The weakening of the Euro mainly expected soon retests the support at 1.1025 minimum and maximum 1.0975. Meanwhile, if the Euro is able to break and hold above 1.1076, then the other alternative scenario that Euro likely to test resistance in 1.1100 and 1.1155 area.
Gold Price Still Depressed, Market Focus FOMC Results
Trading commodity futures exchange on Wednesday (29/7), the price of gold has experienced a decline after closed lower in the previous session, while silver futures have traded higher this morning.
Ongoing trade in the Asian session, gold futures for December delivery was trading lower by noting a decrease of the level of 0.02% at $ 1.096.50 per troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. On this morning, the price of gold appears to have moved touched a session low $ 1.094.40 to $ 1.096.40 level daily and daily highs for the session.
On silver futures for September delivery has been observed increased by 0:19% at the level of $ 14,670 per troy ounce. Silver price movement this morning has been observed to move touched a session low $ 14,640 to $ 14,690 daily and the level of daily highs for the session.
The price of gold is still overshadowed by the pressure to naturally decline this morning, when the growth inhibition house price inflation and consumer confidence in the Americas region. At an official report released by Standard & Poor’s stated that the house price inflation in 20 US cities rose by 4.9% in May, which is lower than the previous month with a rise of 5.0%.
A more formal report released by The Conference Board Inc. stating that US consumer confidence fell, a seasonally adjusted 90.9 in July from 99.8 in June.
Meanwhile, the attention of market participants today amid drawn to the outcome of the Fed’s policy meeting on Thursday early morning. Speculation that a rate hike by the Fed until now have plagued the market participants over a period of three quarter of 2015.
The maturity of the interest rate hikes conducted by the Fed is certain to be this year, or later – later than in December. This has been confirmed by comments from Fed Governor Janet Yellen who said that the central bank is now on track to raise their interest rates, but the increase in interest rates is highly dependent on the growth of the US economy. If US economic growth as expected by the Fed, the policy makers can begin the policy tightening measures.
Technically, gold in today’s trading session on Wednesday (29/07) potentially bearish, tested negative trend back, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band begins to widen, thus giving impetus for gold to the upside.
It is estimated that the gold price immediately prior to test support in the area of at least 1091.25 and re-test the maximum level of 1085.50. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1096.50, the estimated price of gold could potentially test the Resistance 1098.80 and 1103.25.
Nikkei Rebound By Disappointing Retail Business Data
The Nikkei index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange in early trading Japan Wednesday morning (29/7), was successfully opened in positive territory by support market sentiment on Japanese retail sales data rose above expectations. However, these gains are limited because the data of retail performance achieved is still far below the previous achievement so some retailers stock plummeted.
Japanese retail sales in June were then rose 0.9%, higher than expectations for a decline to 0.6% and lower than the previous release at 3%. Looks stock SCREEN Holdings became the largest weight in the trade this morning, with opening free fall of -6.42%, followed by shares of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries -4.41%, -3.99% Mitsubishi Electric shares, stock NSK -3.21%, -0.90% Bridgestone shares, stock Daikin Industries -1.32%, -10.42% shares of Tokyo Electron.
The Nikkei had gained significantly by 67.90 points or 0:33%, by becoming 20398.79 points from the previous closing position traded at 20328.89 points and reached the highest position previously traded at 20423.58 points and the lowest at 20070.62 points.
But slightly different from the movement of Nikkei index futures this morning, which just opened higher by 15 points or confined 0:07%, with 20 370 points into the closing position at the end of the previous trading 20 355 points and reached the highest position previously traded at 20 425 points and the previous low at 20 065 points.
Based on the results of the closing of trading on the stock exchange earlier, the analyst estimated that the movement of Nikkei index today is expected to try to penetrate the first resistance at 20 485 points with MA5 under BB10 daily, if the movement of the index broke through the first resistance is expected to try to penetrate the resistance at 25,600 points the middle MA5 BB10 daily.
If the index movement successfully reversed subsequently traded lower, then Analyst estimates that the movement of the index will try to penetrate the first support at 20,200 points with MA5 under BB10 daily, if the movement of the index broke through the first support is expected to try to penetrate the second support at 20 060 points to below MA5 BB10 daily.
Technically, the index on the trading session today, Wednesday (29/07) likely to weaken, tests negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. At the M15 chart bearish engulfing formation provides opportunities for the index to move downside. However, the volume of which is likely to increase, early indications bullish index. In addition, RSI, on the M15 charts, is oversold, signalling upside.
It is estimated, the index test the level of support in advance ie 20150 and 20100. If it fails at 20210, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the resistance level 20240 and continued until the possibilities are in the 20300 area.
