Hong Kong Exchanges Beware of Global and China pressure
Stock market participants at Hong Kong stock during the first week of last September looks back disappointed, with the Hang Seng index closed fell sharply and reached its lowest level since the third week of August, 2010, where the weakening is due to the poor results of data releases in the country and China ,
Slumping sharp sales data in the country on an annual basis in July last, to be 1.9% from the previous release to 4.3%, a sentiment that the worst in the country, as well as the performance of the domestic manufacturing in August last, dropped to 44.4 basis points from the previous releases in the position of 48.2 basis points, with an estimated decrease according to the economists who will be 47.1 basis points. While from China, investors responded negatively succession will result performance of the manufacturing sector, non-manufacturing and service sectors of China in August last, in which overall showed a decline enough in the results of the previous release.
The movement of the benchmark Hang Seng Index in the first weekend in September, looks back dropped sharply by 771.78 points, or 3:57%, by becoming 20840.61 points from previous releases at a position 21612.39 points, and reached the highest level in the first week the position of 21793.02 points and the lowest level at 20715.02 points position.
Likewise, the movement of the index futures Hang Seng in the first week ago, returned to record a significant decline of 850 points, or 4%, to be 20 590 points from the closing position traded prior week at position 21 440 points and managed to obtain the highest jump traded that week at position 21 617 points and the lowest decline at position 20 540 points.
While ballast Hong Kong shares during the first week ago was shares of Bank of China, shares of Industrial & Comercial Bank of China, the stock Constrution Bank, AIA Group, shares of Hang Seng Bank, PetroChina, China’s stock Shengua Energy, CNOOC, Lenovo shares , Kunlun Energy stocks, Sino Land stock.
Hong Kong shares traded two weeks later, it is estimated that investors will respond to the results of the data release Foreign Exchange Reserves in the country, as well as the trade balance report data, export data, the inflation data, the data PPI China in August last.
While technically the movement of the index Hang Seng week’s second later, Analyst estimates that the movement of the Hang Seng index is still likely to continue pressure traded first week ago, by trying to penetrate the first support at position 20 260 points and second support at position 19,835 points, while the resistance level first at 20,800 points and the position of a second resistance at position 21 220 points.
Technically, the index on the trading session today, Monday (07/09) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. At the M15 chart bearish engulfing formation provides opportunities for the index to move downside. However, the volume tends to increase, an early indication of bullish index. In addition, RSI, the M15 chart, was oversold, signaling upside.
It is estimated, the index test the level of support in advance ie 20 670 and 20730. If it fails at 20603, then the next index is expected to tend to retest the resistance level 20570 and continued until the possibilities are in the area 20 525.
Dollar Observed Rise Against Major Currencies
Observed dollar rose against other major currencies at the closing session of last Friday, after US employment data and positive comments from Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker, reinforcing expectations for a US interest rate hike this month.
The Labor Department said the US economy added 173 000 jobs in August. The number of jobs created rose 245,000 in July.
The report also showed that the US unemployment rate fell to 5.1% last month from 5.3% in July, compared with expectations for a decline to 5.2% in August. The figure is the lowest unemployment rate since April 2008.
The US dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a trade of six major currencies, rose 0.23% and settled at 96.54 from 95.87 session lows. The dollar turned higher against the euro, with EUR / USD down 0.14% and settled at the level of 1.1106.
Technically, today’s trading session on Monday (07/09), the pair Euro-dollar likely to move in a positive trend.
The strengthening Euro is mainly expected to immediately re-examine the minimal resistance at 1.1225 and maximum 1.1275. Meanwhile, if the Euro unable to break and stays below 1.1172 then the other alternative scenario that Euro likely to test support in 1.1150 area and 1.1100.
US Labor Data Undermines Gold
Gold fell to a near two-week low after the US unemployment rate fell to the lowest level in seven years, raising expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this month. The Fed is still weighing whether the US economy is strong enough to withstand monetary tightening or rising interest rates. As for gold, monetary tightening means a decrease in the appeal, due to the gold does not yield.
Data from the US Labor Department showed non-farm payrolls in August amounted to 173,000, lower than economists’ expectations of 220,000. As for the data in July was revised up to 245,000 from the initial release of 215,000. The unemployment rate fell to 5.1% reported in August, the lowest level since April 2008. The same report shows the average salary rose higher than expected.
Fed Funds futures showed the Fed rate hike chances in September by 34%, higher than before the US employment data released at the level of 27%, but lower than the month with the opportunity to reach 50%.
Technically, gold in today’s trading session on Monday (07/09) potentially bearish, tested negative trend back, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Band begins to widen, thus giving impetus for gold to the upside.
It is estimated that the gold price immediately prior to test support in the area of at least 1114.33 and re-test the maximum level of 1109.50. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1119.20, the predicted gold prices could potentially test Resistance ie, 1122.40 and 1127.50.
